II
(Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), he believes that tying ratification
to "no deployment for national missile defense (NMD) is simply
unacceptable.
"They should ratify START II based on the agreement, period,"
the Clinton administration official said.
Cohen said the United States will negotiate with the Russians to see
"whether or not we can amend the ABM treaty to take into account a
national missile defense system, if the president should choose to go
forward."
He advised the senators, whenever they travel to Moscow, "to try to
arrange to meet your counterparts. It's very important that you talk to
them and you talk very straight with them. I always try to meet with
Duma members and to lay out our strategy and what our goals are."
Cohen said President Clinton's decision on whether to deploy NMD this
summer will be based solely on whether considerations set out have been
met.
The first such consideration, he said, is whether there is a credible
threat to U.S. national security. The defense secretary said he believes
the threat is real and will increase.
Other tests include technological capability and costs and, he said,
"the next question is, what is the impact upon our arms reductions and
stability in the world, in terms of strategic systems? Those are the
four tests the president is going to apply."
After the tests, set for late June or early July, there will be about
a 30-day period in which Cohen will examine the results and then make a
recommendation to the president. "But it will be separate and distinct
from Russia's ratification of START II," Cohen said. "And I would not have
the Duma be in a position to tie the two together. We have to look at
what the threat is to our country. We have to look in terms of the
countries that are most critical of NMD, that also have participated in
spreading that technology to some degree.
"We will look at what our national security interests are and then
see whether this system, as contemplated, is designed to defeat a threat
from a rogue nation. But I can't tell you that now; I'll be in a
position this summer to make a recommendation to the president," Cohen
said.
Asked by Senator Richard Shelby (Republican, Alabama) about the
timeframe for removing remaining U.S. troops in the Balkans, Cohen
declined to name "a fixed period" adding, "I can tell you there has been
great progress....We have seen our forces come from 20,000 in number
down to roughly 4,300 or so. In Kosovo, we have seen a rather
significant change on the ground from last year, when we were in the
middle of waging an air campaign....But it's going to take some time."
Shelby asked Cohen whether, given the drawdown in U.S. forces, it is
still U.S. policy to "maintain a military capable of fighting and
winning two major-theater wars almost simultaneously."
"The answer to that is 'yes'," Cohen said, qualifying that by adding
that there would be much higher risk "on the second MTW (major theater
war) than is desirable."
Asked whether the two theater war policy might be reviewed, Cohen
said it is always under review and subject to the Quadrennial Defense
Review coming up in the next administration. "We feel that we still need
to maintain that capability for the foreseeable future, because we still
have at least two major-theater war potentials that we have to address,
namely the Gulf region and also in the Korean peninsula." he said.
Sources
